Every high school baseball player wants to play D1.

Who wouldn’t?!

D1 players get the most attention and have the best chance to play pro baseball (statistically).

Reality check:

D1 is likely NOT your best fit for playing college baseball.

Only about 5% of college baseball players are freshmen playing at the D1 level.

Less than 1% of high school players end up on a D1 roster as a freshman.

I know a player who:

• Was recruited by colleges at every level

• Picked a D3 school

• Started every game for four years at the D3 school

• Played in an elite summer league

• Was invited to a pre-draft showcase

• Signed a professional contract

He got it right!

I know another player who:

• Was recruited by colleges at multiple levels

• Picked a junior college

• Hated his experience at the junior college

• Transferred to a D3 school after one semester

• Struggled academically at the D3 school

• Dropped out of school before graduating

He got it wrong, twice!

Even if you’re good enough to play D1 baseball, your best fit may be at a different level.

Many factors contribute to finding your best overall fit.

Determining the best level for YOU is one of them.

How Good Are Players at Each Level?

It’s critical to understand that there are studs at EVERY level of college baseball.

There are D3 players who have the talent to play D1, and there are D1 players who would be better off at a lower level.

The gap between divisions is much more narrow than football, basketball, and other sports.

On a given day, lower level teams can (and do) beat higher level teams. For instance:

Another important point:

There are different levels within each division. For example:

• The best NAIA teams are just as good or better than some D1 and many D2 teams, whereas the worst NAIA teams are worse than many D3 teams.

Here’s my educated guess at the general hierarchy of levels within college baseball:

• D1 (Power Five)

• D1 (Mid)

• JC (High)

• D1 (Low)

• D2 (High)

• NAIA (High)

• D2 (Mid)

• JC (Mid)

• D3 (High)

• NAIA (Mid)

• D2 (Low)

• D3 (Mid)

• JC (Low)

• NAIA (Low)

• D3 (Low)

I recently started a research project. I’m compiling the metrics of high school players that go on to play at various levels of college baseball.

So far, the only sample size big enough to report is D1. Here are the average numbers:

• Height = 6’1”

• Weight = 192

• Velo (P) = 88

• Velo (C) = 79

• Velo (IF) = 84

• Velo (OF) = 88

• Pop Time = 1.94

• Exit Velocity = 91

• 60 = 7.08

Some important points regarding this data:

• These are AVERAGE numbers for D1 players at a variety of colleges. If I filtered only Power Five colleges, the averages would be higher.

• These data are from ALL positions. The average 60 time for a D1 outfielder is much lower than 7.08.

Now, someone reading this is thinking:

“My exit velocity last week on HitTrax was 98! Why am I not getting D1 looks?”

To this person: SLOW DOWN!

Here are some factors to consider:

• Metrics are useful, BUT are only one piece of the puzzle for college coaches. Having D1 metrics doesn’t mean you’re a D1 player.

• Coaches value different metrics at different positions. If you’re an outfielder and your exit velocity is 98 but your 60 time is 7.40, you’re not a D1 outfielder.

• Some coaches value metrics more than others.

It’s almost certain, however, that you’re not a D1 prospect if your metrics aren’t close to these averages.

I don’t have enough data to report on other levels yet, but as you work down the hierarchy list above, the averages will decrease gradually.

Here’s the most important sentence in this article:

Even if you have the metrics, stats, ability to play D1 baseball, don’t automatically assume that D1 is your best fit!

5 Steps to Determine Your Best Fit

1. Get an Objective Evaluation

Our evaluation process at College Athlete Advantage is second to none.

Our players are evaluated by at least six of our advisors (all former college coaches and/or players).

We give our players feedback about what they do well, what they can improve upon, and what level(s) fit best.

We don’t sugar coat!

Trying to push players on colleges above their ability level isn’t fair for the coaches or the players.

This is what I mean by an objective evaluation.

Find people who will be honest about what level(s) is the best fit (likely not mom or dad).

2. Determine What Factors are the Most Important (TO YOU)

Finding your best fit involves many factors:

• Academics

• Cost

• Location

• Playing Time

• Coaching Staff

• Facilities

• Campus Life

• Intuition

• Development

• Etc.

Spend time thinking through all the important factors related to YOUR search (don’t worry about anyone else).

Rank the most important and least important (to YOU) of all the relevant factors.

• If you have the ability to play D1 baseball, but being able to play right away is important, consider a lower level. (Note: Zero college coaches at any level will guarantee playing time. You have to EARN it.)

• If academics is your top priority and you have a specific major identified, prioritize four-year colleges over junior colleges.

• If playing at the highest level is important but you’re not getting recruited by D1 coaches out of high school, choose a junior college.

There are too many potential scenarios to list here.

The main point:

Spending time thinking about what factors are most important to you gives you the best chance to find your best fit.

3. Determine College Targets (Cast a Wide Net)

Next, start researching!

List as many colleges as possible that COULD be a good fit based on your the level(s) you can play at AND your most important factors.

Cast a wide net! Cast a wide net! Cast a wide net!

There are approximately 1700 college baseball programs in the United States.

How many could you write down off the top of your head in 15 minutes?

100?

200?

300?

Even if you can write down 300 college baseball programs, that leaves 1400 others.

Some (probably a lot) of those 1400 COULD be a good fit and SHOULD go on your initial list.

Don’t let colleges that COULD be a good fit fall through the cracks.

This is why starting to think about college early is important.

If you wait until the last minute, you won’t do good research and colleges that could be a good fit will fall through the cracks.

4. Narrow Your Targets

Narrowing your targets is easy at first.

If you’re objective evaluation suggests that D1 and D2 colleges aren’t a good fit, you can cross off 500+ colleges right away.

If you also want to stay within six hours of your hometown, you can cross off quite a few more.

Eventually, narrowing your targets becomes more difficult.

Going from 1700 to 100 is much easier than 100 to 10, and going from 100 to 10 is easier than 10 to 5, and so on.

Assuming you’ve identified 100 colleges that could be a good fit based on level and your important factors, continue to eliminate colleges based on how much interest they’re showing.

If you reach out to all 100 colleges at least three times and only 20 respond, eliminate the 80 that didn’t respond.

Next, narrow your list to the 10 colleges that are the MOST interested.

Next, narrow your list to the 5 colleges YOU’RE most interested in.

Five is a manageable number. These will be the colleges you research thoroughly through campus visits (maybe more than one) and communication with coaches, professors, players, college admins, alumni, etc.

Here is a good place to repeat:

GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS PROCESS!

Finding your best college fit is important. Don’t rush it!

5. Choose Your Best Fit (and Commit)

I’m analytical by nature. I love numbers and statistics.

But your intuition (gut feeling) is MORE important.

Still, I suggest a systematic process to inform your intuition:

• Create a table with your top ten factors in order across the top and your top five colleges down the left side.

• Score each school for each factor on a scale from 1-10.

• Multiply the scores for your top factor by 10, your second most important factor by 9, your third factor by 8, and so on.

• Add all the scores for each college.

Using this system, the college with the most points is the best fit (ON PAPER).

If the scores align with your intuition, then your final decision is pretty easy. If not, then you have some thinking to do.

This scoring system is useful, but it’s not perfect. I recommend trusting your intuition MORE than the numbers.

Once you make your final decision, simply call the head coach and tell him you’re ready to commit!

Some important notes regarding this process:

First, your evaluation may (and likely will) change over time. Get reevaluated periodically, especially if you’ve made improvements.

Second, I’ve presented the five steps as a clean sequence, but the process may not play out this way.

The factors that are most important to you may change over time.

Colleges you eliminated from your list may show interest late in the process, causing you to reconsider.

The coaching staff at the college you commit to may leave, causing you to reconsider.

Be prepared for curveballs!

Still, having a foundational system to guide you through the process will make handling the curveballs easier.

Please comment or reply if you have questions and/or want more depth about certain topics.

All the best!

- Matt

P.S. If you'd like to schedule a free consultation with me to discuss your specific recruiting process, reply to this email or sign up for a time here.