Evaluating baseball players is an inexact science. It’s difficult for college coaches to project how well high school players will perform at the next level.

This scene from “Moneyball” shows that even professional scouts swing and miss on prospects:

I personally know one “can’t miss” D1 prospect who was recruited by a lot of D1 schools, committed to a former national champion, and has struggled to get on the field in college.

Many other “can’t miss” prospects enter the transfer portal every year.

College coaches are constantly tweaking their evaluation processes and systems to minimize the risk of “missing” on prospects.

But what do they evaluate?

This varies from coach to coach and position to position, but the following is a general list.

NOTE: I will discuss pitchers this week and position players in next week’s newsletter.

How College Coaches Evaluate Pitchers

Velocity

It seems like I hear some version of the following question at least once a week:

“My son doesn’t throw hard, but he gets outs. Why do college coaches focus so much on velocity?”

Here’s the answer:

Because they can find pitchers who throw hard and ALSO get outs!

Velocity is the MOST important weapon for a pitcher. Here are a few reasons:

• Velocity decreases the time hitters have to decide to swing, sometimes causing them to swing at bad pitches.

• When hitters are geared up to hit a high velocity fastball, they are more susceptible to off-speed pitches.

• High velocity = high arm speed = sharper movement on breaking pitches

Velocity is definitely not the ONLY thing college coaches look at, but it’s usually the FIRST thing they look at.

Breaking Pitches

Coaches look at several things when evaluating breaking pitches:

• What direction the ball breaks

• How “sharp” the ball breaks (spin rate)

• How well the pitch “tunnels” with the fastball

• Command

Coaches use the numbers on a clock to describe what direction the ball breaks. For example, a “12-6” means the pitch breaks straight down, whereas “1-7” means the pitch breaks down and slightly away from a right-handed hitter.

Coaches LOVE to see two breaking pitches: a downward breaking curveball and a horizontally breaking slider. However, they would prefer one really good breaking pitch over two mediocre pitches. The key is to master one before practicing another.

How “sharp” the ball breaks is associated to how fast the ball spins (spin rate). Recently developed technology such as Rapsodo, Trackman, and others, gives coaches access to this information.

“Tunneling” is a term used to describe different pitches starting in the same “tunnel” out of the pitchers hand. If a pitcher’s fastball and breaking ball look the same (share the same tunnel) for the first 20+ feet out of the pitcher’s hand, the hitter will have more difficulty recognizing the pitch type. Here’s an example:

Change-Up

Some coaches refer to the change-up as “the best pitch in baseball.” This is because of the “tunneling” effect mentioned above.

It’s easier for pitchers to keep a change-up in the same tunnel as the fastball and still keep the ball in the strike zone.

A well-thrown change-up is incredibly deceptive to the hitter and will induce a lot of weak contact.

Many high school pitchers neglect developing a change-up because they fall in love with breaking pitches. They are able to succeed using just a fastball and curveball or fastball and slider.

Coaches LOVE pitchers who come into college with a well-developed change-up.

Frame

College coaches love recruiting pitchers with a large body frame because they see such pitchers as “projectable.” This means they assume big-bodied pitchers will be able to add velocity.

If a pitcher is 5’10”/175 and throws 85 mph, college coaches are likely to assume he’s closer to his maximum potential velocity than a 6’4”/200 pitcher. This definitely isn’t always the case, but this is how coaches minds work.

Another related factor coaches consider, however, is how much they think the pitcher’s body will continue to grow. If the 5’10”/175 pitcher I mentioned above still has a “baby face” and his parents are tall, they will assume the pitcher’s body will continue to grow and still see him as “projectable.”

Command

Any discussion on “command” for pitchers needs to start with defining what “command” means.

I’ve found that many people confuse “command” with “control.” Here’s the difference:

• “Control” is a pitcher’s ability to throw strikes consistently.

• “Command” is a pitcher’s ability to put the ball exactly when he wants consistently.

Coaches typically evaluate “control” first, by looking at in-game walk numbers. If a pitcher is walking more than one batter every three innings, then “control” is a concern.

If a pitcher displays good “control,” coaches will then evaluate “command.”

Performance

Performance = Stats

In general, coaches don’t trust stats unless they know the level of competition.

Some coaches pay very little attention to stats, while others consider them quite a bit.

Here are some pitching stats coaches look at:

• K/IP

• BB/IP

• WHIP

• ERA

K/IP = Strikeouts per Innings Pitched

Coaches like to see at least a 1:1 ratio of K/IP. This generally means the pitcher has pretty good velocity and/or a really good strikeout pitch (i.e., slider).

BB/IP = Walks per Innings Pitched

Seeing a 1:2 BB/IP ratio or worse is cause for concern for coaches. When pitchers are walking close to a batter every 1-2 innings, they generally don’t throw enough strikes.

WHIP = Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched

WHIP gives coaches an indication of how many baserunners pitchers allow per inning. In general, a 1.10 WHIP or lower is really good.

ERA = Earned Run Average

ERA is average number of earned runs a pitcher gives up per 9 innings (or 7 innings for high school players). In general, an ERA under 2.00 is very good and under 1.00 is outstanding.

Again, coaches often don’t trust stats unless they know the level of competition. A pitcher who posts a 0.50 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 60 innings against low-level competition may not be nearly as good as a pitcher who posts a 1.50 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 60 innings against high-level competition.

Coaches may be intrigued by good stats, but will want to see the pitcher in person to verify how good he actually is.

Mechanics

College coaches generally don’t take a deep dive into pitching mechanics at the beginning of the recruiting process, but definitely evaluate certain aspects of the delivery:

• Rhythm

• Back hip loading

• Arm action

• Front leg bracing

• Etc.

Later in the recruiting process (often on a campus visit), coaches will sit down with pitching prospects and watch video with them to discuss their mechanics and necessary adjustments.

This is a way coaches inform prospects about how they will be coached in their program. If a coach does this, it’s a good sign they have high interest in the player.

Movement

College coaches like to see pitches that move.

Pitches that move are more likely to miss the barrel than pitches that stay straight. It’s easier for hitter to anticipate where the ball will cross home plate when the pitch is straight.

High school pitchers can work on movement by playing with different grips and releases for different pitches.

In general, pitchers should develop four-seam and two-seam fastballs. The four-seam fastball stays more straight and can be used when the pitcher NEEDS a strike. A well-thrown two-seam fastball will move the the arm side.

For breaking pitches, coaches look for sharpness of break (sometimes called “life”), and how well the pitch tunnels with the fastball coming out of the pitchers hand.

The better the tunneling effect and the sharper the break, the more deceptive the pitch will be to the hitter.

Intangibles

Intangibles are attributes coaches like to see that are difficult to measure. Here’s a list:

• Pace

• Competitiveness

• Attitude

• Mindset

• Resilience

• Etc.

To get a feel for a player’s intangibles, coaches will watch his mannerisms closely during games and talk to coaches/people that know the player well.

Here are some things that coaches will like:

• No wasted time between pitches (get the ball back from the catcher and get back on the rubber quickly).

• Even keel when something negative happens (move onto the next pitch).

• Showing excitement when good things happen (but not going overboard and/or showing up the opponent).

• Positive interactions with teammates.

• Etc.

That’s it for today. As I mentioned, next week I will write about how coaches evaluate position players.

Feel free to reply/comment with any questions and/or insights.

All the best!

- Matt

P.S. If you'd like to schedule a free consultation with me to discuss your specific recruiting process, reply to this email or sent me a text at 319-883-0242.